Dear Gudrun -
I was going through a really
rough time in life a few years ago, and I found solace in a few things... Drinking and gambling seemed to ease my pain
and dry my tears. But then somehow things turned ugly. My pain in certain areas
disappeared, but I created new struggles and aches in other areas. I began to
feel like an idiot. I felt stupid and guilty and helpless. My enjoyment didn’t
last for very long, and I lost the ability to have much of a say in my habits.
My habits slowly drained all of my energy and took my life away from me.
Well I’m here to say that I
shook that all off I am ready to live – and that includes feeling my feelings
instead of running away from them. My
drinking is under control. And I still enjoy playing games, but prefer not to
risk money. I am a Second Life
resident. I see Zyngo everywhere, and I
see people bet small amounts and win a lot.
Is it simply one of those fun social games, or would it reignite the
fires of my gambling addiction?
Sincerely, Loser
Dear Winner –
Zyngo is a cross between a slot machine and Bingo, and it is ubiquitous in
Second Life gaming parlors. It has
nothing to do with the social gaming developer Zynga, which has created such
narcotically addictive gems as Farmville and Bubble Safari. There are contests, but most Zyngo games are
non-social... they are player vs. machine.
This is not to say that Zyngo is not narcotically addictive as
well. All gambling is addictive.
Oddly, Zyngo is still permitted in SL.
This is because Linden Labs considers it a game of skill. The game creator (Aargyle Zymurgy) pursued
this issue with LL. He had 5 experienced
players play 5 novices… Surprise!!! The veteran players got higher scores. But what has that got to do with a single
player trying to achieve a set score?
There are a few contests between players... but most machines are set up for single
players trying for an instant pay-out.
Zyngo IS gambling; it is not a game of skill. As in Bingo, attention span and method CAN
increase your score, but is a slot machine a game of skill? No, it is pure
probability. In the past, Zyngo even had an “auto-play” setting on many
machines, which both pulled the handle and covered the squares for you. In the end, this was too egregious even for
LL, and has been outlawed.
There are a lot of variations on Zyngo. I only play actual Zyngo, and I prefer the "No Devil" version. (In the "Devil" Classic or Wyld versions, a devil randomly appears and takes part of your score :-<) I have lost lots of Zyngo games, but I have won lots. I don't kid myself, and I don't bet large amounts, but my bigger wins have been L$50K, L$30K, L$20K, and L$10K, and I have had several of those L$20K and L$10K wins. I don't keep track of lesser wins, but I DO keep souvenirs of the bigger ones, one of which I include herewith to establish my credentials. Of course, part of the beauty of SL in general is that the Linden is only worth 4/10 of a cent (or 4.108 mills). The only other places besides SL that "mills" are used today are gas station prices, grocery store coupons, and tax computations.
If anyone tells you they make a living playing Zyngo, they are lying, possibly to entice you into Zyngo parlors they own. If they do own a Zyngo parlor, they may actually be making money on Zyngo, but not by playing it. Like all games of chance, Zyngo is set up so the house wins (unless the owner screwed up his setup). Of course, the players do win a certain percentage of the time, but they don’t win more than they (or someone else) have lost. The game actually has a “stop-loss” setting to prevent the house from losing, so if you find a disabled machine, that’s why it's disabled.
Each game is an independent event.
What does this mean? Within the
realm of large numbers, you will win a certain percentage of the time. However, if you have a 1:2 chance of winning,
you won't necessarily lose one and then win one. You might lose 50 before winning the next
(if you have any money left to bet). Or,
if you have lost 10 games, the next player on that same machine may win, instead
of you, or may not. I guess you hafta
keep playing, otherwise you won’t know, LOL.
Independent
Events
When two events are independent, the occurrence of one in no way
affects the probability of the other occurring. An overly discrete example of
two independent events is as follows: say you rolled a die and flipped a coin.
The probability of getting any number face on the die in no way influences the
probability of getting a head or a tail on the coin. But events don't require that kind of
physical separation to be independent.
If a "fair" coin (whatever that is)
is tossed two times, the probability that a head comes up on the second toss is
1/2 regardless of whether or not a head came up on the first toss (unless, of
course, the coin isn’t really fair at all, which is probably the case since
probably none are).
Dependent Events
When two events are dependent, one event occurring directly influences
the likelihood of the other event.
For example, there are 4 aces in a deck of 52 cards. If you were to draw a card from the deck and
it was an ace, the probability of drawing a second ace would be greatly
changed, and for that matter, the probability of drawing any other card would
also be changed.
Within a Zyngo game, there is some dependency within the game
itself… For example, in “No Devil”,
there is one spider and two multipliers.
The longer you keep your multipliers, the better, whether you get them
before the spider (which then reduces them), or after, which leaves them intact
for the whole game. Obviously, it is
advantageous to get multipliers early on, whether the spider comes first or
later in the game.
But the outcome of any entire game is independent of the outcome of
any other game.
Gamblers Fallacy
A coin is flipped five times and comes up heads each time. What is the
probability that it will come up heads on the sixth flip? The correct answer
is, of course, ½ (unless it is a loaded coin, or maybe just a normal totally
uneven coin). But many people believe that a tail will be more likely to occur
after throwing five heads. Their reasoning goes "In the long run, the
number of heads and tails will be the same, so the tails have some catching up
to do." The gambler's fallacy
involves beliefs about sequences of independent events. Believers in the fallacy argue correctly
that in the long run, the proportion of heads will be something like 0.50. Or,
stated more precisely, as the number of flips approaches infinity, the
proportion of heads approaches 0.50. Doesn't this imply that there must be some
natural adjustment occurring, compensating for a string of heads with the later
occurrence of more tails? Uh, yea. But how long you gonna live? More to the point, how long is your money
gonna last?
Zyngo is run honestly. Does the Mafia control Zyngo? If it does, Zyngo is at least as honest as
Vegas. Many of the big parlors have a
Middle Eastern flavor (or at least clientele).
Maybe Al-Qaeda controls Zyngo. In
any case, the numbers are generated randomly by servers operated by the
manufacturers of Zyngo machines.
The machines themselves have a variety of
settings managed b y the machine owners.
These include the price of the game, the winning score, the devil's
appearance or lack thereof, and a stop-loss setting. If you find a disabled machine, it was
disabled by stop-loss because it was in danger of paying out more than it took
in.
Zyngo can involve no money or huge bucks. There are free-to-play machines. There are machines that take tiny bets. There are also machines that pay out 100X
your investment. And there are machines
where you can bet L$25,000 and win L$500,000.
Payout percentages are high because the parlors have figured out that it
is more profitable and better for traffic to hold small percentages of large
amounts than large percentages of small amounts. They would rather you bet 1000 and they keep
20% than have you bet 100 and keep 50%.
In the short term, anything can happen.
In the longer term you may win.
But eventually, the house will profit.
At one of my favorite spas, which seems very
successful, the following scores will produce the indicated payouts on bets of
$L1000:
Score Payout
69222 20000 20X
54333 10000 10X
48888 6000 6X
46888 5000 5X
41333 3000 3X
34333 2000 2X
29333 1500 1.5X
If a score of 34333 allows L$1000 bettors to win a L$2000 payout 40% of the
time, the parlor will make about L$2000 every 10 games. You figure out the rest, LOL. Of course, a bet of more or less than $L1000
will increase or decrease the house determined payout accordingly. And higher scores are harder to achieve, so
there are far fewer winners. I have seen
projected win rates for various scores, but none of them make sense. Nevertheless, the owners no doubt have a good
handle on it based upon experience. This same parlor pays L$695 per month in
advertising costs and L$295 in land fees, so they are probably not losing
money, and are probably making far more than the typical SL business.
Anyone who tells you Zyngo is skill- based with
the player using math, deductive reasoning, memory, etc, is uttering
nonsense. There are only 3 factors
here... The amount paid, the winning
score, and the amount to be won. You are
now armed with vast knowledge.
The main strategy I recommend is simply
discipline. Set limits, don't bet more
than you can afford to lose, and quit while you're ahead :=P
If you are truly addicted and want to gamble with
dinner, you might try this:
I vouch for NONE of their recipes.
Note: This item also appeared in the January REZ Magazine.
